Knee-jerk Criticism of Biden

Chess with Putin requires careful moves

Present policy is always a bet against future reality.  We live in a flow of change, some would call it a riptide.  The “ten years out” horizon is far less predictable today than it was in the past.  Hence policies must be accessed against a less knowable future and our confidence in our own judgement as well as confidence in the error of someone else’s judgement must be less.   I.e. we need to get used to a new reality that calls for substantial humility in our forecasting, and patience in our actions. 

Therefore, lesson one, don’t base present policy choices on payoffs that are too far in the future, where too far means the time horizons we used in the past. 

Lesson two, hold back some of your cards and make “plays” on a regular basis as opportunities appear, shift and disappear.   

Lesson three, timing may be “all.”  That is, circumstances will shift in nonlinear ways.  Change is not a steady development, but an erratic path of trial and error, of first one way and then another.  The same policy may be successful at one moment and not at another. 

Lesson four, there is no knowable “best time” to act. 

Lesson five, resist the temptation to risk good currency today for future rewards.  You are going to need resources all along the way and you can’t depend on any steady source of replacement. 

Lesson six, don’t let all this “hog-tie” you and result in no action.  As always, no choice IS a choice. 

All of this too abstract?  I’m thinking of criticism President Biden has received for not going all in on pressuring Germany to drop the pipeline, and Putin to make internal “human” rights changes and crack down on cybercrime. (And this assumes that we could influence Germany.)

To me Biden’s approach is careful and well calculated.  It will take ten years or more to make the pipeline fully functional and in the meantime, much will change, i.e. transition to non-fossil fuel energy. And along the way there will be many new opportunities to influence Russia.  Also, as Jamie Orr reminded me the trade related revenue flow from Europe to Russia will be in dollars or euros, transactions that are transparent and subject to interruption. 

Biden’s approach was cautious and strategic, like the opening moves of a chess game.