Stumbling Toward an Election
Start with fastballs down the middle
No
Much like biological systems, social institutions and processes are complex wholes not discrete parts. Just as you cannot tell all that you need to know about the health of a person by examining a strained ankle, you need to be cautious about claiming critical knowledge about a whole economy by simply studying inflation.
I am willing to make allowances for professional economists who are, as most specialists, experts on the parts of systems, and I am even sympathetic to those that seek simplicity by avoiding difficulties with the actual meaning and nature of what we commonly call “inflation.” But as a political scientist I need to call out those who exploit references to part of the economy, isolated from the whole, for partisan purposes.
Consider the many ways in which one might evaluate economic health in a society. Productivity? Employment opportunities? Income equality? Educational opportunity? Safety net? Growth? Sustainability? Savings? Investment? Support of Science and Technology? Infrastructures? Corruption? Balance of work and leisure?
Each of these can be subdivided. The point is that focusing on one part of a larger whole is an age-old election strategy—hit ‘em where they are weak, or appear weak.
There is a place for a serious critique of the phenomenon that we call “inflation.” It is not itself a simple concept, let alone an adequate measure of the overall economy. A serious analysis of price increases over time in different societies would involve a willingness to abandon stereotypes and adopt a neutral scientific stance. Advisable but not realistic for most of us.
Just let it be understood that the duration, the extent, the risks and the rewards, as well as the nature, of inflations vary. Ideal levels suitable for growth and opportunity? Debated now and will be in the future.
Actually, when partisans try to use a complex idea like inflation to advance their electoral chances, they take something of a risk. Serious debate will leave many looking foolish.
Finally, I would suggest, the question that candidates might genuinely ask, is simply how are you, the voter, actually doing? Broadly, and how do you see your future? And what do you want your government to do to sustain a good quality of life for all Americans.
And to be a really effective citizen and voter, one might recognize how much a President, a mayor or even a legislature can and cannot do for the common good.
Inflation is a good place to begin. It’s a global problem. That should tip you off to the fact that it hasn’t been created by the policies of any one government. A good starting point.