The Day After

One Political Scientist's initial view of the 2024 Election.

I agree it is reckless to write about politics the day after an election.  But if not now, then when?  (Well, anyone who knows me well, will know the answer. Perhaps tomorrow, or anytime I have a cup of coffee in my hand and am sitting with friends or strangers. I hold out hope that my present ideas will “evolve.”)

We have witnessed a key moment in a traditional American historical narrative.  This is what the overturn of one period of American political alignment looks like from a seat in the stands.  We have moved from a relatively stable period of Democratic Party ascendency in the 1950s through the 1960s through a period of general Party infighting and a growing lack of commitment to either political party, to a new, possibly stable, alignment with again strong Party allegiances, but not by the same groups with the same Party as before. 

We have been experiencing the largely unique American phenomenon of “partisan realignment” as the forces of technological change, social values, and a global environment of shifting patterns of commerce, conflict, and now environmental threat embolden and restrain American productivity, family structure and our relationships with other nations.    

As large numbers of people feel the negative side of economic and social change, we see again how the national government is asked, even demanded, to provide, beyond its Constitutionally limited means, a cultural “Dream” of an abundant and fair economy. 

Newly mobilized movements rally behind a promise of fundamental changes in the society’s economic and social “rules of the game,” which they perceive as working to advantage “others,” either those above or below them, in how the “rewards” of being an American are distributed. And one political party seizes the opportunity and becomes the vehicle of these hopes. 

The aftermath of a political realignment has always been a critical moment in this nation’s history.  It unleashes the most predatory and the most idealistic ambitions.  It “calms the waters,” in one sense, as large numbers of people see themselves as members of a political movement that will serve their interests and hence revives their faith in the “American political and economic system.”   But it also enables a challenge to many established policies, policies that have provided the underlying stability that a commercial economy requires. 

And the opposition?  It may become an answering voice of new ideas, provide a degree of effective warning to recklessness in government policy, or dissolve into a politics of bitterness and retreat. 

There is no guarantee that realignments will end well.   On the whole, they have in the past.  They are a mechanism of change.  Simply that.  Almost “a tool” placed in new hands. 

And yet to be determined, it seems to me, the public face, the perceived leader, of the new majority.  Elon Musk?  Donald Trump Jr., J.D. Vance or a rejuvenated Donald Trump?  Questions best left to future blogs as we watch this next act in the pageant of America.