The Evil Twin
The other side of the optimism in my last blog post
This is a continuation of a column I wrote several days ago. It is not a retraction. Not really the “other side of the coin.” I see it as an attempt at balance. Or at hope?
Whether we live today in a world of stability or instability, the future is frightening. The safeguards that we have been able to deploy, institutional frameworks that manage and control political forces and economic activity will become inadequate in the years ahead as change accelerates and we find ourselves without any effective way to manage its effects.
That is, we live with accelerating change without effective brakes. No matter where we look, a Tsunami of change hovers on the horizon. The churn is irreversible. Each moving part—climate change, AI, inequality, weaponizing technologies, migration, and others that we do not yet comprehend—has its own dynamic and potential for creating a world spinning out of control in every continent, in every city, in every heartland.
I wrote before that a world of “unleashed” states is bound by strong structures of global institutions, private and public, that mediate conflict and manage economic and social forces. Hence, the present multipolar nature of the world is not in itself a threat to our survival. I believe that is true. For now!
When we wake up each morning, it is the “future” that we step into, if gently disguised as the “present.”
We are by necessity, and not by choice, global residents as well as local or national citizens.
We cannot bend to our will many of the forces of change already set and accelerating. We can, though, see the urgency of creating and building the structures that will apply brakes to the speed and direction of such changes.
And yet, I fear, we are still “blind” in our insights and foolish in our self-interests.
Look at the “issues” over which we body slap and bareknuckle each other. List them. Take a step back and see them for the trivia they are, in the context of our common future. Consider the time and resources committed to these petty conflicts.
There is still time. I continue to believe in the power of the human mind and will. Unlike many I see technology as a potential aid. The tools we are developing are awesome. But they are only tools. In whose hands will they rest? And, as I have said many times before, it will be the education systems of the world that either prepare or fail the next generation.
United in knowledge and will, human societies can perform Herculean tasks. The question is what kind of men and women will hold this power.