We Need Not Live in a Fool's Paradise

The dangers of certainty

Certainty is a paradise, a fool’s paradise.  Yet in the present world, edged and packaged, as reality often is by algorithms, models, simulations and holographic displays, we expect puzzles with all the pieces in the box.    

When we wrestle with the many open questions about the present situation in Ukraine, I fear we succumb to the “certainty” temptation.  Unless you crave exposure on 24 hours “news” channels, uncertain becomes us.  It can be worn with pride. 

Here’s a list of my candidates for uncertainty.  Candidates for discussion and consideration.  Candidates for serious analysis.  A list of what “some” people seem certain about:

1.       Putin’s leadership in Russia.  He may be a strong leader but he governs through a national security bureaucracy that are not simply his puppets

2.       Putin and Zelensky cannot afford to compromise, that is they will lose office and power if they negotiate and gain less than either claimed as their goal.   There are many face-saving end games and both are supported by coalitions that prize stability over uncertainty. 

3.       Putin is locked into a philosophy that sees the present as a “clash of cultures” on a global scale. That some Russian philosophers plead and argue for a Euro-Asian empire that would encompass a multiethnic land mass of from West to East across a vast continent does not mean that practical men and women in leadership positions in Russia, concerned with economic realities, are romantic idealists.  Nor should we assume Putin is this one-dimensional?

4.       Ukraine is a unified nation behind its heroic President committed to democracy and transparency.  There are significant ultranationalist forces in Ukraine, akin to our “Proud Boys,” that are well armed and capable of atrocities.  They are organized into political forces and support their own interests.  Ukraine has been one of the most corrupt countries in the world and while Zelensky has battled corruption he is not universally admired.

5.       The people of the West see through the fog of war and are as accurately informed about what is happening as the Russian people are misinformed.  Misinformation is not “owned” by one side in any conflict.  Intentional and unintentional. 

6.       Russians have no reason to believe that the Western alliance is hostile to their government and interests.  Remember how the U.S. reacted to missiles in Cuba. 

7.       Our system of democratic government and free market economics is universally praised by people once it is explained to them and they rid themselves of their corrupt leaders.  We have preached a lot to other peoples that our system of democracy and our economic system is the world’s future and they better get in line.  It is hard to read or measure the resentment this has caused. Nor should we discount the accusation of hypocrisy

8.       American policy does not flow from Biden’s forehead like the bubble over the head of a cartoon figure.    We have a very competent foreign and military establishment that provides sane and cogent advice.  They are a team of different voices.

9.       The world is the way it is because of corrupt dictators that seek ever more power.  Shouldn’t we all take some credit and blame for the world as our children find it?

I’m not certain the above are all wrong.  Some seem to me pretty clear, but ….  I’m claiming only that reality is always more than our best efforts can imagine.   

By questioning our present answers, we will not be replacing someone else’s certainty with our own, although this is often assumed.   We will be allowing reality to display its own course unconstrained by our more or less hopeful and often futile guidance.  Not that understanding is to be less valued.  Only less prized. 

I’m painfully aware that the educational enterprise which I have served over a long life is based on teachable certainties.  We offer students “theoretical frameworks;” we seek to emulate scientific certainty.  All our intellectual worlds are expansive self-contained bubbles of interactive parts, the machinery of integrated ideas. Useful?  Yes.  THE answer? No.

Perhaps now is a time for us to face this difficulty.  Perhaps we are ready to cross over into our adulthood as human beings.

And that was the end of the blog. Those that have read so far, may be considering a rejoinder. Biden’s speech yesterday provides the context. Isn’t “conviction” sometimes valid, admiral, even necessary. All great American speeches, and many honored political leaders have embraced certainty. As a policy tool, as an expression of moral fervor, as a rallying cry for battle, certainty feels appropriate.

There is always a tension between certainty and uncertainty. Crafting wise policy requires full awareness of ambiguity and a healthy willingness to doubt. Executing policy in a troubled, frightened, war-torn world demands strength and resolve. Whether resolve and certainty are two sides of the same coin I leave you to ponder.