My point though is that shipwrecks are probably, or have been, our default result. What may be redeeming, or at least interesting, is that our successes while probably the majority outcome have often been "big" winners. The survivorship bias may be encouraging us to take the same odds.
I guess if our odds are so good then Enrico Fermi wouldn't have had to ask where everyone was. Our survival is so rare, that all know life in the universe is descended from 1 organism. How do we calculate the odds?
I think survivorship bias throws a lot of us off. It's fine to look at what has worked, but let's make sure we learn lessons from the shipwrecks, too.
My point though is that shipwrecks are probably, or have been, our default result. What may be redeeming, or at least interesting, is that our successes while probably the majority outcome have often been "big" winners. The survivorship bias may be encouraging us to take the same odds.
I guess if our odds are so good then Enrico Fermi wouldn't have had to ask where everyone was. Our survival is so rare, that all know life in the universe is descended from 1 organism. How do we calculate the odds?